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USDA Hogs & Pigs Report               06/25 14:29

US June 1 Hog Inventory Up 5% From Year Ago 

                           2019               2020              2020 as
                                                                percent
                                                                of 2019
                       (1,000 head)       (1,000 head)         (percent)

All Hogs June 1          75,725              79,634               105%
Kept for Breeding         6,410               6,326               99%
Kept for Marketing       69,316              73,308               106%

WEIGHT BREAKDOWN
Under 50 lbs.            22,210              22,160               100%
50-119 lbs.              19,693              20,370               103%
120-179 lbs.             14,396              16,090               112%
180 lbs.                 13,017              14,687               113%

FARROWINGS/INTENTIONS* 
Mar-May                   3,133               3,172               101%
Jun-Aug*                  3,275               3,123               95%
Sep-Nov*                  3,265               3,090               95%
Mar-May Pig Crop         34,454              34,933               101%

                          (number)          (number)           (percent)

Mar-May Pigs Per Litter   11.00               11.01               100%

OMAHA (DTN) -- OMAHA (DTN) -- United States inventory of all hogs and pigs 
on June 1, 2020, was 79.6 million head. This was up 5% from June 1, 2019, 
and up 3% from March 1, 2020.

Breeding inventory, at 6.33 million head, was down 1% from last year, and 
down 1% from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 73.3 million head, was up 6% from last year, and 
up 3% from last quarter.

The March-May 2020 pig crop, at 34.9 million head, was up 1% from 2019. 
Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.17 million head, up 1% from 
2019. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50% of the 
breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high of 
11.01 for the March-May period, compared to 11.00 last year.

United States hog producers intend to have 3.12 million sows farrow during 
the June-August 2020 quarter, down 5% from the actual farrowings during 
the same period one year earlier, and down 2% from the same period two 
years earlier. Intended farrowings for September-November 2020, at 3.09 
million sows, are down 5% from the same period one year earlier, and down 
4% from the same period two years earlier.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 
5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 49% of the total 
United States hog inventory, up 2% from the previous year.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Hog inventory as of June 1 totaled 79.6 million head. This is a 5% 
increase over year-ago levels and a 2.5% increase over March levels," said 
DTN Livestock Analyst Rick Kment.
 
"Slaughter reductions by plants through the COVID-19 crisis have continued 
to back up supply levels of hogs in most categories," Kment said. "Hogs 
over 180 pounds increased 13% from year-ago levels and increased 6% from 
March 1 levels. Continued strong increases in hogs weighing 120 pounds and 
greater was the biggest shift in inventory levels, indicating that hog 
availability to plants will remain burdensome through the rest of the 
summer and most of the fall months. 

"Hogs kept for breeding decreased 1% from year-ago levels, indicating a 
shift in herd expansion, but not showing as significant of a change in 
long-term direction that some had expected. Farrowing intentions for June 
through August have fallen 5% from year-ago head, focusing on lighter 
supplies in early 2021. 

"Although the report focuses on the continued bearishness of the hog 
industry, overall hog numbers, especially in higher weight categories, is 
not as aggressive as many have feared. This will likely continue to put 
pressure on nearby contracts, while allowing for some limited support to 
develop in long-term market direction."

**

To view the full Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, visit 
https://www.nass.usda.gov/


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